Predictions on W(h)anganui

Kiwiblog's David Farrar has noted IPredict is strongly favouring the Maurice Williamson not to override the decision of the National Geographic Board. He agrees with this is for ideological reasons: that government don't wish to second guess the rulings of professional boards.

Now I suspect the government won't override it either, but their primary concern is probably appeasing the angered Maori party.

As we all know, ACT forced National into growing a spine over Maori Seats in Auckland. The Maori party were a bit upset about this, as were their supporters. Now Key has tried to position National as being prepared to acknowledge the "Maori position" and make concessions against the traditional National electorate to appease the likes of tribal Maori, and the centre voters who like to see tribal Maori appeased. Thus he needs an issue to show that this is not mere libservice.

Here they see the perfect opportunity: an issue not as constitutionally important as race based seats, nor economically important, which puts a dominantly conservative community against Maori. With Tariana Turia brought to tears by the issue, it obviously is of some significance and will definitely score points with the Maori Party leader.

To bad for the people who have to live there, the vast majority of whom don't want the name changed, but thats politics, and they are both culturally and politically irrelevant.